Wednesday, May 27, 2020

COVID-19 and the "New Normal"

It has now been 5 months since the COVID-19 virus impacted our nation and we are no closer to any solution than we were in the beginning. Many mistakes ere made and while we all can "Monday morning quarterback" those mistakes and decisions, this is not something anyone could have been prepared for.

There are conspiracy theorists who believe the Chinese failed to maintain secure control and storage of a virus and it somehow left their laboratory in Wuhan, China. Was it an experiment gone wrong? A deliberate attempt to infect people and see how far the virus would travel? Was it some plot to bring the world to it's knees? After all, China losing a few million people would not make a huge impact on their population. At this point we don't really know; regardless it's something we all have to live with and face many changes.

While so many have self-isolated and sequestered themselves to avoid the virus, many seem to think gathering in crowds unprotected is just fine. Videos and photos of crowds at parties, pools, beaches and bars show the blatant disregard for the health of the general public by many selfish people. Contact with someone who has the virus and may be asymptomatic sets loose a new chain of infection that is exponential in number. One infects five or more who do the same and before you know it, hundreds are infected from only one virus carrier. In one gathering hundreds were infected by only one person who was ill when attending! Those who think they are immune need a reality check; there is absolutely nothing proven on immunity, and frankly, being stupid is not a protective measure!

As summer fast approaches, some believe the virus will die off due to the heat. This is not true as the temperature needed to destroy the virus is way above what a human can withstand. Although UV light can mitigate the virus to some extent, the UV-C rays needed to destroy the virus are so harsh that a human would be a crispy critter in seconds from a blast that would also kill the virus. So, while being in the sun is important for mental health for many, the sunlight won't protect you. What will protect you is washing your hands often, don't touch your face, wear a mask, practice social distancing, and stay healthy. I am not proposing people take any supplements but we take Vitamin D3 daily and so far, so good, and we are part of the population most at risk.

So what will be the "new normal"? I don't know for sure but believe many people will continue to work from home, brick and mortar stores will change how people shop, grocery and goods delivery will boom well into the future, social distancing will continue, gatherings could be limited in size and scope, and people will be limited in hours and schedules for such common things as haircuts, beauty salon, nail salons, and even restaurants. Order on line and pickup at store, or delivery, will be more common; curbside delivery has been perfected by some merchants like Best Buy, so ordering and getting items as large as major appliances is very convenient.

Many businesses will fail, especially those who struggled long before this crisis. Restaurants normally have a terrible failure rate and I believe we could see 40% or more fail within a short time. Service industries will experience losses due to lack of travel and stay at home workers. Some airlines will fail and hotels will operate in the red for years. People will put off major spending and home modernization projects and many homeowners will address home repairs themselves while at home, rather than engaging outside sources. I note more people trimming their lawns themselves recently rather than hire a gardener.

Sadly, I believe there will be many home foreclosures and homes for sale as a result of not being able to pay the mortgages. People who depended on a two earner income have seen, or may see their income fall precipitously and not be able to keep up payments. So many people are "underwater" in their homes, meaning they owe more than the home is worth, they will never be able to recover. Add to this the additional mortgage payments that will become due at some point, whether now or later. High dollar homes with expensive cars in the driveways will go up for sale. I saw this in 2009 and the Mercedes, Jaguars and Audi's in those driveways were replaced by small Honda's and Toyota's after the houses sold. I see many homes for sale in our area over the last few months; some are going to live with family to cut costs I believe. Others are moving to where cost of living is less. Savings, if any, went to simply surviving the first few months of the crisis; many never saved and are now in deep debt and trouble. Renters have been given a break in paying rent but it will come due and then what? Will landlords allow them to renew leases and tack missed payments into future rent, or will they demand it all in full, forcing people to leave their home or business? And if so, what good are empty apartments and leased stores if new lessees are unable to pay the rent and security deposits?

Cities and states, along with the Federal government, are way short in tax collections and revenue. How will they make this up? Increase taxes and fees on those who can pay? Reduce services and cut programs? Welfare and social programs won't be cut so what will? Will the remaining taxpayers take the brunt of funding the shortfall? Will politicians stop wasting tax money and tighten the belt? Sadly, that's unlikely as politicians spend taxpayers money with reckless abandon and then ask for more. The stimulus checks that were received? Someone has to pay for that and it's the taxpayers. The 3 trillion dollar proposal by the Democrats is a crap shoot, with more pork barrel politics where every congressperson got some deal for their district in return for a vote. The logic of giving everyone $2000 a month for a number of months is so faulted, and is intended to create a universal income system where everyone gets a set amount monthly, paid of course by the working taxpayer. Those on welfare and government programs will get more and overburden the taxpayers yet again. Funny how this worked out...someone once suggested every person should stop working for a week to send a message to the government on taxes. Looks like lots more than a week happened due to the virus and look what a mess it has become.

We will weather this as Americans always do.Time to stop blaming Trump or anyone else for the response to this pandemic. As I stated, mistakes were made, but if you want to blame someone, blame the Chinese government. I firmly believe they hid the enormity of this virus, the contagious nature and simply hoped it would go away. It didn't and now we have almost 100,000 Americans who have died because of it. More Americans have died from this virus than were killed in the Vietnam War! Yet there are no protests to distance ourselves from China, only protests to open up the country, mostly by whiners who really don't own businesses and fanned by the twisted media coverage. Yes, we want the country to re-open, but at what cost? Another 100,000 to die?  Selfish reasoning will cost us dearly. But then again, selfishness has become a nasty trait of so many of our newer generations. It is "me too, me too" except when it comes to doing the right thing and helping fight this virus. I suppose asking everyone to do their part in fighting the virus is like asking snowflakes to defend their homeland. Unlike their predecessors, they don't stand for anything except self satisfaction and self indulgence. And that is what will keep this terrible virus circulating and mutating for many years to come.